Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses
Posted on 2019-12-31 - 04:51
Abstract Background The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. Methods A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. Results T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8–33.7%, incidence by 8.4–38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1–13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–2.8%, incidence by 0.5–3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1–0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10–50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5–6.9%, incidence by 0.5–7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2–2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3–9.2%, incidence by 4.2–11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9–5.2%. Conclusions Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.
CITE THIS COLLECTION
DataCite
3 Biotech
3D Printing in Medicine
3D Research
3D-Printed Materials and Systems
4OR
AAPG Bulletin
AAPS Open
AAPS PharmSciTech
Abhandlungen aus dem Mathematischen Seminar der Universität Hamburg
ABI Technik (German)
Academic Medicine
Academic Pediatrics
Academic Psychiatry
Academic Questions
Academy of Management Discoveries
Academy of Management Journal
Academy of Management Learning and Education
Academy of Management Perspectives
Academy of Management Proceedings
Academy of Management Review
Awad, Susanne; O’Flaherty, Martin; El-Nahas, Katie; Al-Hamaq, Abdulla; Critchley, Julia; Abu-Raddad, Laith (2019). Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses. figshare. Collection. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4801458.v1
or
Select your citation style and then place your mouse over the citation text to select it.
SHARE
Usage metrics
Read the peer-reviewed publication
AUTHORS (6)
SA
Susanne Awad
MO
Martin O’Flaherty
KE
Katie El-Nahas
AA
Abdulla Al-Hamaq
JC
Julia Critchley
LA
Laith Abu-Raddad