Illicit financial flows and the provision of child and maternal health services in low- and middle-income countries

Abstract Background Illicit financial flows (IFFs) drain domestic resources with harmful social effects, especially in countries which are too poor to mobilise the revenues required to finance the provision of essential public goods and services. In this context, this article empirically examined the association between IFFs and the provision of essential health services in low- and middle-income countries. Methods Firstly, a set of indicators was selected to represent the overall coverage of essential health services at the country level. Next, a linear multivariate regression model was specified and estimated for each indicator using cross-sectional data for 72 countries for the period 2008–2013. Results After controlling for other relevant factors, the main result of the regression analysis was that an annual 1 percentage point (p.p.) increase in the ratio of IFFs to total trade was associated with a 0.46 p.p. decrease in the level of family planning coverage, a 0.31 p.p. decrease in the percentage of women receiving antenatal care, and a 0.32 p.p. decrease in the level of child vaccination coverage rates. Conclusions These findings suggest that, for the whole sample of countries considered, at least 3.9 million women and 190,000 children may not receive these basic health care interventions in the future as a consequence of a 1 p.p. increase in the ratio of IFFs to total trade. Moreover, given that family planning, reproductive health, and child immunisation are foundational components of health and long-term development in poor countries, the findings show that IFFs could be undermining the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.