Exploring the link between irregular migration and asylum: the case of Italy

Abstract Many asylum seekers crossed European borders in an irregular manner during the last 2 years and completed their asylum procedure with a negative decision. Based on the limited number of effective orders to leave, it may be argued that a majority of rejected asylum seekers are de-facto staying in the European Union. This paper aims to investigate the nexus between irregular migration and asylum. The analysis focuses on the case of Italy adopting a residual method. The amount of asylum seekers, who have the right of residence in Italy, is subtracted from the number of immigrants who entered Italian borders in an irregular manner from 2015 to 2017: the remainder amount provides an estimation of irregular immigrants generated by the failure of asylum procedure. A short-term migration scenario is settled for 2018 giving empirical-based insights to quantify irregular migrants who are likely to stay in Italy at the beginning of 2019.