Evaluation and refinement of the PRESTARt tool for identifying 12–14 year olds at high lifetime risk of developing type 2 diabetes compared to a clinicians assessment of risk: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Traditionally Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) was associated with older age, but is now being increasingly diagnosed in younger populations due to the increasing prevalence of obesity and inactivity. We aimed to evaluate whether a tool developed for community use to identify adolescents at high lifetime risk of developing T2DM agreed with a risk assessment conducted by a clinician using data collected from five European countries. We also assessed whether the tool could be simplified. Methods To evaluate the tool we collected data from 636 adolescents aged 12–14 years from five European countries. Each participant’s data were then assessed by two clinicians independently, who judged each participant to be at either low or high risk of developing T2DM in their lifetime. This was used as the gold standard to which the tool was evaluated and refined. Results The refined tool categorised adolescents at high risk if they were overweight/obese and had at least one other risk factor (High waist circumference, family history of diabetes, parental obesity, not breast fed, high sugar intake, high screen time, low physical activity and low fruit and vegetable intake). Of those found to be at high risk by the clinicians, 93% were also deemed high risk by the tool. The specificity shows that 67% of those deemed at low risk by the clinicians were also found to be a low risk by the tool. Conclusions We have evaluated a tool for identifying adolescents with risk factors associated with the development of T2DM in the future. Future work to externally validate the tool using prospective data including T2DM incidence is required.