Analyses of Kaposi Sarcoma trends among adults establishing initial outpatient HIV care in Nigeria: 2006–2017

Abstract Background The incidence of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-associated Kaposi Sarcoma (KS) in the pre-antiretroviral therapy (ART) population remains high in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We examined trends of KS prevalence in adults, establishing initial outpatient HIV care from 2006 to 2017 in Nigeria. Methods We analyzed data of 16,431 adults (age ≥ 18 years) enrolled for HIV care from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2017, in a large clinic in Jos, Nigeria. KS at enrollment was defined as KS recorded in the electronic health record within 30 days of clinic enrollment. Time trends were compared among four periods: 2006–2008, 2009–2011, 2012–2014, and 2015–2017 using logistic regression models. Annual trends were analyzed using join point regression and restricted splines. Results The study population had a mean age 35.1 (standard deviation, SD 9.5) years, and were 65.7% female (n = 10,788). The mean CD4 cell count was 220 (95% CI 117–223). The overall KS prevalence at entry was 0.59% (95% CI 0.48–0.72). Compared to 2006–2008, KS prevalence was significantly higher in 2009–2011 (adjusted odds ratio 5.07 (95% CI 3.12–8.24), p < 0.001), but remained unchanged in subsequent periods. Male sex and low CD4 T-cell count independently increased odds for KS. Conclusions Despite ART expansion, KS at enrollment showed no significant decline. The low CD4 cell count, across all periods, indicates delay in enrollment for HIV care, which increases KS risk. Interventions aimed at early HIV diagnosis and linkage to ART is critical to KS risk reduction in this population.