A Delta-radiomics model for preoperative evaluation of Neoadjuvant chemotherapy response in high-grade osteosarcoma

Abstract Background The difficulty of assessment of neoadjuvant chemotherapeutic response preoperatively may hinder personalized-medicine strategies that depend on the results from pathological examination. Methods A total of 191 patients with high-grade osteosarcoma (HOS) were enrolled retrospectively from November 2013 to November 2017 and received neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT). A cutoff time of November 2016 was used to divide the training set and validation set. All patients underwent diagnostic CTs before and after chemotherapy. By quantifying the tumor regions on the CT images before and after NCT, 540 delta-radiomic features were calculated. The interclass correlation coefficients for segmentations of inter/intra-observers and feature pair-wise correlation coefficients (Pearson) were used for robust feature selection. A delta-radiomics signature was constructed using the lasso algorithm based on the training set. Radiomics signatures built from single-phase CT were constructed for comparison purpose. A radiomics nomogram was then developed from the multivariate logistic regression model by combining independent clinical factors and the delta-radiomics signature. The prediction performance was assessed using area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results The delta-radiomics signature showed higher AUC than single-CT based radiomics signatures in both training and validation cohorts. The delta-radiomics signature, consisting of 8 selected features, showed significant differences between the pathologic good response (pGR) (necrosis fraction ≥90%) group and the non-pGR (necrosis fraction < 90%) group (P < 0.0001, in both training and validation sets). The delta-radiomics nomogram, which consisted of the delta-radiomics signature and new pulmonary metastasis during chemotherapy showed good calibration and great discrimination capacity with AUC 0.871 (95% CI, 0.804 to 0.923) in the training cohort, and 0.843 (95% CI, 0.718 to 0.927) in the validation cohort. The DCA confirmed the clinical utility of the radiomics model. Conclusion The delta-radiomics nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature and clinical factors in this study could be used for individualized pathologic response evaluation after chemotherapy preoperatively and help tailor appropriate chemotherapy and further treatment plans.