Data and code on the effects of quarantine and social distancing on the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries.

This fileset contains two datasets Book1_regression.xlsx and Book2.xlsx, in .xlsx file format, and the code file, Corona_research.mw, in .mw file format, used to generate the datasets.


The datasets and code support the findings in the following preprint, which is under consideration at BMC Infectious Diseases of Poverty: Atiqur Chowdhury, K M Ariful Kabir, Jun Tanimoto. How quarantine and social distancing policy can suppress the outbreak of novel coronavirus in developing or under poverty level countries: a mathematical and statistical analysis. Research Square https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-20294/v1 (2020).


Dataset Book1_regression.xlsx: The first column of this spreadsheet consists of the actual data for the total number of COVID-19 infected people in Bangladesh until March 28th, 2020. Data reported in the first column were collected from www.iedcr.gov.bd from March 7th, 2020 to March 28th, 2020.

The second column of this spreadsheet reports simulated data on the number of COVID-19 infected people, using a novel theoretical model named “Social distancing SEIQR model”. The code used to generate these data is contained in the code file Corona_research.mw.

Dataset Book2.xlsx: This dataset contains data derived using the social distancing SEIQR mathematical model. Data are reported for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: no lockdown, one week lockdown, two weeks lockdown and three weeks lockdown. Additionally, data are reported for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: 50%, 40%, 30%, 20% and 10% of people respectively, are following the social distancing rules. The last part of the spreadsheet contains data for COVID-19 cases under the following conditions: 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% 50% and 60% of people respectively, are in home quarantine. The code used to generate these data is contained in the code file Corona_research.mw.

Study aims and methodology: The novel coronavirus, named as SARS-CoV-2, is a transmissible viral disease that has rapidly spread around the world and is currently a major threat for developing and under poverty level countries according to World Bank's and WHO's prediction. At the moment, there is no vaccine or effective treatment to prevent the spread of the virus. However, the policies “self-isolation”, “quarantine”, “lock-down” and “social distancing”, that have been introduced in many countries around the world, aim to control the severity of the outbreak. This paper introduces a novel theoretical model named Social distancing SEIQR model, to control the spread of infection by combining both quarantine and social distancing explicitly based on the real cases observed, in countries where medical equipment and other resources are limited.

The SEIQR social distancing model is based on six assumptions or facts. The basic reproduction number R0, was used to assess the transmissibility of COVID-19. For more details on the methodology and statistical analysis, please read the related article.